The Zogby Report Discusses Predicting the Unpredictable in a Deadlocked 2024 Presidential Race

In a recent episode of the podcast The Zogby Report, independent pollsters John and Jeremy Zogby from the political polling company John Zogby Strategies discussed the challenges of predicting the extremely close race between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

They discussed how the 2024 presidential race was proving to be a nail-biter, with polls showing a deadlock between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump at 47% each. Despite Harris receiving a small bump from the Democratic convention and the debate, the race remains tight, especially in key battleground states where leads are within the margin of error.

The Zogby’s identified the real question as whether the race is moving at all. Slight shifts in polling might suggest a candidate is pulling ahead, but they pointed out that these changes are often over-reported. In reality, neither candidate holds a significant lead. Polls, influenced by sampling methods and margin of error, show minor fluctuations that don’t necessarily indicate momentum.

Adding to the uncertainty, the possibility of a black swan event—like another assassination attempt or major geopolitical developments—could still change the course of the race. Key issues, such as the economy’s response to the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and the war in Ukraine, may shape voter preferences in the weeks to come.

Ultimately, predicting the outcome in such a close race is risky. As seen in previous elections, last-minute surprises and shifting undecided voters can tilt the scales. With so much uncertainty, they concluded that it was best to hold off on any predictions until the final polls. This race is far from over.